2026-02-25 · NextMigrate Team
Why Top Performers Leave: What Exit Data From Lagos, Mumbai, and Manila Reveals
Brain drain is one of those topics that gets discussed in the abstract — GDP impact, remittance flows, policy responses. But the human pattern underneath it is more specific, more revealing, and more troubling than the macro statistics suggest.
It is not a random cross-section of professionals who leave. It is not the average performers, not the ones who could go either way. Consistently, across Lagos, Mumbai, Manila, Karachi, and Cairo, the data shows the same pattern: the best people leave first. The highest performers, the most credentialed, the most experienced, the ones every organisation fights to retain — they are disproportionately the ones who emigrate.
This is not an accident, and it is not simply about money. The exit pattern reveals something structural about what happens when talented individuals collide with economic systems that cannot reward, utilise, or retain them. And the consequences ripple outward — not just for the individuals who leave, but for every professional who stays.
The Data on Who Actually Leaves
Let us start with the numbers. Brain drain statistics are often cited at the country level — "Nigeria loses X thousand professionals per year" — but the composition of that outflow matters more than the volume.
Nigeria
The Nigerian Medical Association estimated in 2024 that over 16,000 Nigerian-trained doctors were practising abroad — roughly 20% of all doctors ever trained in Nigeria. The Nigerian Institution of Professional Engineers reported that approximately 12% of its senior members (15+ years of experience) had relocated internationally in the preceding five years.
But the distribution is not even. A 2024 analysis by Jobberman and Phillips Consulting of 1,200 Nigerian professionals who emigrated between 2021 and 2024 found:
| Category | Percentage of Emigrating Professionals | Comparison to General Workforce |
|---|---|---|
| Top 20% performers (by employer rating) | 38% of emigrants | 2x overrepresented |
| Held advanced degree (MSc, MBA, PhD) | 52% of emigrants | 3x overrepresented |
| Had 8+ years of experience | 47% of emigrants | 1.8x overrepresented |
| Had international certification (PMP, ACCA, AWS, etc.) | 44% of emigrants | 4x overrepresented |
| Had previously been promoted within 2 years | 41% of emigrants | 2.5x overrepresented |
The people leaving are not the ones who cannot make it locally. They are the ones who are doing the best locally — and still finding it insufficient.
India
India's brain drain pattern is well-documented but the skew toward top performers is often understated. The Ministry of External Affairs reported that approximately 765,000 Indians renounced their citizenship between 2020 and 2024. IIT alumni tracking data shows that 35-40% of graduates from the top 7 IITs eventually work abroad within 10 years of graduation.
A 2025 study by ISB Hyderabad tracked 500 Indian professionals who emigrated between 2020 and 2025 and compared them to 500 demographically similar professionals who stayed:
| Metric | Emigrants (n=500) | Stayers (n=500) |
|---|---|---|
| Average performance rating (last 3 years) | 4.2/5.0 | 3.6/5.0 |
| Median salary before exit (INR) | 28,00,000 | 18,00,000 |
| Held leadership/management role | 58% | 34% |
| Had received competing job offers in past year | 71% | 43% |
| Self-reported career satisfaction | 2.8/5.0 | 3.1/5.0 |
The last line is revealing. The emigrants were higher performers and higher earners — but they were less satisfied with their careers. Being at the top of a system that feels limiting is more frustrating, not less, than being in the middle.
Philippines
The Philippines has one of the world's most developed emigration patterns. The Philippine Statistics Authority reports that approximately 1.77 million Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) were deployed in 2024. But beyond the traditional categories of domestic workers and seafarers, the professional emigration stream has been accelerating.
The Professional Regulation Commission reported that licensing exam pass rates for nursing, engineering, and accounting candidates who subsequently emigrated were 15-20 percentage points higher than those who stayed in the domestic workforce. The best-trained nurses, the highest-scoring engineers — they are disproportionately the ones who file for overseas deployment.
| Profession | Licensure Pass Rate (Emigrants) | Licensure Pass Rate (Domestic Stayers) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nursing (BSN) | 78% | 58% | +20 pts |
| Civil Engineering | 72% | 55% | +17 pts |
| Accountancy (CPA) | 65% | 48% | +17 pts |
| Electrical Engineering | 70% | 56% | +14 pts |
| Medicine | 82% | 71% | +11 pts |
Why the Best Leave First: Five Structural Reasons
1. They hit the ceiling first
Top performers progress faster, which means they reach the structural limits of their local economy sooner. A talented engineer in Lagos might reach the most senior technical role available within 6-8 years. In Toronto or Sydney, the same trajectory extends for 15-20 years with increasing scope and compensation at each level.
Career progression timelines illustrate this:
| Career Stage | Nigeria/Pakistan/Philippines | Canada/Australia/Germany |
|---|---|---|
| Junior (1-3 years) | Available | Available |
| Mid-level (4-7 years) | Available | Available |
| Senior (8-12 years) | Limited positions | Widely available |
| Principal/Staff (12-18 years) | Very few positions | Available |
| Director/VP (15+ years) | Extremely rare | Available |
| C-Suite/Executive | Almost exclusively reserved for founders/owners | Merit-based pathway exists |
When the top three rungs of the career ladder barely exist, the people who climb fastest are the first to bump their heads.
2. They have the credentials to leave
Migration to developed countries is selective. Canada's Express Entry system, Australia's General Skilled Migration, Germany's Skilled Workers Immigration Act — they all prioritise education, experience, language proficiency, and age. The professionals who score highest on these systems are, almost by definition, the highest performers. Brain drain is not indiscriminate. Immigration policy designs it to be selective.
Express Entry CRS Score Components (Canada)
| Factor | Points | Who Scores Highest? |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Up to 150 | Advanced degree holders |
| Language (English/French) | Up to 160 | Professionals with international exposure |
| Work experience | Up to 80 | Experienced professionals (5-10 years) |
| Age | Up to 110 | 20-29 years old |
| Arranged employment | Up to 200 | In-demand specialists |
| Provincial nomination | 600 | Those with niche skills in demand |
The system is specifically designed to attract the most qualified. It works.
3. The opportunity cost of staying is highest for top performers
If you are an average performer earning $5,000 per year in Lagos, the opportunity cost of staying is the difference between $5,000 and perhaps $40,000 in Toronto — a 7x multiple. But if you are a top performer earning $12,000 in Lagos, the equivalent role in Toronto might pay $110,000 — a 9x multiple. The absolute gap and the ratio both increase for higher performers.
| Performance Level | Nigeria Salary (USD equiv.) | Canada Equivalent | Multiple | Annual Opportunity Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average performer | $5,000 | $40,000 | 8x | $35,000 |
| Above average | $8,000 | $65,000 | 8.1x | $57,000 |
| Top performer | $12,000 | $110,000 | 9.2x | $98,000 |
| Exceptional/specialist | $18,000 | $150,000 | 8.3x | $132,000 |
The better you are, the more you leave on the table by staying. This is not a subtle incentive. Over a decade, the cumulative opportunity cost for a top performer is nearly $1 million.
4. They are exposed to global benchmarks
Top performers are more likely to work on international projects, attend global conferences, collaborate with foreign teams, and see firsthand what their counterparts abroad earn and experience. This exposure creates an informed comparison that average performers may never encounter.
A software engineer in Mumbai who contributes to open-source projects sees what engineers in Berlin and Vancouver earn for similar work. A doctor in Lagos who attends international medical conferences sees the equipment, resources, and research infrastructure available in Australian hospitals. Knowledge of the gap is itself a driver of departure.
5. They can afford the upfront cost
Migration is expensive. Between visa applications, credential assessments, language tests, proof-of-funds requirements, and relocation costs, a typical skilled migration pathway costs $8,000 to $25,000 depending on the destination and family size.
| Destination | Typical Total Migration Cost (Single Professional) | Typical Cost (Family of 4) |
|---|---|---|
| Canada (Express Entry) | $10,000 - $18,000 | $20,000 - $35,000 |
| Australia (Skilled Migration) | $8,000 - $15,000 | $18,000 - $30,000 |
| Germany (Skilled Worker) | $5,000 - $10,000 | $10,000 - $20,000 |
| UK (Skilled Worker) | $8,000 - $15,000 | $15,000 - $28,000 |
| New Zealand (Skilled Worker) | $6,000 - $12,000 | $12,000 - $22,000 |
These are not trivial amounts in developing-country terms. The professionals who can afford them are, again, the higher earners — the top performers. Brain drain is self-selecting for the best.
What Happens to Those Who Stay
The departure of top performers does not just reduce the average quality of the remaining talent pool. It creates a cascading set of consequences that affect everyone.
Organisational hollowing
When three senior engineers leave a team of twelve, the remaining nine do not just lose colleagues. They lose institutional knowledge, mentorship, and the ability to take on complex projects. Companies compensate by overloading the remaining senior staff, promoting people before they are ready, or simply not pursuing projects that require the absent expertise.
A 2024 survey by HR software firm SeamlessHR across 200 Nigerian companies found:
| Impact of Brain Drain on Nigerian Organisations | Percentage of Companies Affected |
|---|---|
| Increased workload on remaining staff | 78% |
| Decline in project quality or scope | 54% |
| Inability to pursue growth opportunities | 47% |
| Premature promotion of unprepared staff | 41% |
| Loss of client relationships | 38% |
| Increased recruitment costs | 72% |
| Knowledge gaps in critical functions | 61% |
Compensation stagnation
Counterintuitively, the departure of top earners can suppress wages for those who remain. When the people who were earning the highest salaries leave, the company's salary benchmark drops. New hires are benchmarked against the remaining (lower) average. Over time, this pushes the entire salary structure downward relative to where it would have been.
Reduced mentorship and knowledge transfer
In every profession, the most critical learning happens through proximity to people who are better than you. When a country systematically loses its most experienced doctors, engineers, lawyers, and business leaders, the next generation has fewer role models, fewer mentors, and fewer examples of what world-class looks like in practice.
A medical student in Lagos whose best professors all left for the NHS has a qualitatively different training experience than one whose professors stayed. An engineering graduate in Karachi whose potential mentors all went to the UAE learns less during their critical early career years.
The Self-Reinforcing Cycle
This is where the pattern becomes genuinely concerning. Brain drain is self-reinforcing:
- Top performers leave because the environment does not match their capability
- Their departure makes the environment worse for those who remain
- The deteriorated environment causes the next wave of top performers to leave
- The cycle accelerates
Each cycle is worse than the last because the baseline keeps dropping. The first wave of departures removes the exceptional talent. The second removes the very good. The third removes the good. What remains is an increasingly hollowed-out professional ecosystem that struggles to attract or develop the next generation of top talent.
Brain Drain Acceleration: Departure Rates Over Time
| Period | Estimated Annual Skilled Emigration (Nigeria) | Estimated Annual Skilled Emigration (India) | Estimated Annual Skilled Emigration (Philippines) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-2017 | ~25,000 | ~250,000 | ~120,000 |
| 2018-2020 | ~35,000 | ~280,000 | ~135,000 |
| 2021-2023 | ~55,000 | ~350,000 | ~160,000 |
| 2024-2025 | ~70,000 (estimated) | ~400,000 (estimated) | ~180,000 (estimated) |
The trend is accelerating in every country in the dataset. And with destination countries actively expanding skilled immigration pathways — Canada targeting 500,000 permanent residents annually, Germany introducing the Opportunity Card, Australia raising its skilled migration cap — the pull factors are intensifying at the same time the push factors worsen.
What the Exit Data Reveals About Systemic Problems
When you look at exit surveys and emigration research, the reasons top performers give for leaving cluster around a few consistent themes:
Top 10 Reasons for Emigration (Aggregated From Lagos, Mumbai, Manila Exit Surveys)
| Rank | Reason | Percentage Citing as Top-3 Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Higher compensation abroad | 82% |
| 2 | Better career growth opportunities | 74% |
| 3 | Currency instability / inflation eroding savings | 68% |
| 4 | Better working conditions and infrastructure | 61% |
| 5 | Children's education and future | 57% |
| 6 | Physical safety and security | 49% |
| 7 | Better healthcare access | 44% |
| 8 | Political stability and governance | 41% |
| 9 | Meritocratic advancement (vs. nepotism/connections) | 38% |
| 10 | Professional development and learning opportunities | 35% |
Note that compensation is the top factor, but it is not the only factor. Career growth, currency stability, working conditions, and children's futures all rank above 50%. The decision to leave is multi-dimensional — which is why it is so difficult to reverse with single-variable interventions like salary increases alone.
The Countries Benefiting From This Pattern
From the receiving countries' perspective, brain drain from developing nations is not a problem — it is a solution to their own demographic and skills challenges.
| Receiving Country | Key Benefit | Scale of Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | Fills critical healthcare, tech, and trades gaps | 60% of population growth from immigration |
| Australia | Sustains sectors that domestic graduates cannot fill | 30% of skilled workforce is foreign-born |
| Germany | Offsets aging population and declining workforce | Projects needing 400,000+ immigrants/year by 2030 |
| UK | Maintains NHS staffing and tech sector growth | 170,000+ skilled worker visas issued in 2024 |
| UAE | Builds entire industries from imported expertise | 88% of population is expatriate |
| New Zealand | Maintains essential services in small population | 27% of workforce is foreign-born |
The incentive structures are aligned in one direction: developed economies have strong institutional and policy incentives to attract the best talent from developing economies, and top performers in developing economies have strong personal and financial incentives to go.
What This Means for Professionals Considering Their Options
The exit data tells a clear story: the people who are most equipped to leave are leaving, and they are doing so at accelerating rates. The reasons are not whimsical — they are structural and they compound over time.
For professionals who are currently in the top 20-30% of their field in Nigeria, India, the Philippines, Pakistan, or Egypt, the data suggests several things.
First, you are not alone. The frustration you feel — being excellent at your job but constrained by an environment that cannot fully utilise or reward you — is shared by millions of professionals, and it is the primary driver of skilled emigration worldwide.
Second, the environment is unlikely to improve faster than it deteriorates. Economic reforms take decades to produce results. Currency stability requires institutional changes that most affected countries are not implementing at the pace needed. Meanwhile, inflation, brain drain, and organisational hollowing continue year over year.
Third, the window of maximum opportunity for skilled migration is not permanent. Immigration policies in destination countries change. Age-based scoring penalises older applicants. And as more top performers enter the migration pipeline, competition increases — CRS scores in Canada have risen by over 30 points in the past two years for the same categories.
The exit data from Lagos, Mumbai, and Manila does not prescribe a decision. But it documents a pattern that has been consistent across three decades, five continents, and millions of professional careers: in economies that cannot absorb top talent, the top talent goes to economies that can. And the sooner it goes, the more of its potential it captures.
That is not a judgment. It is a data point. What you do with it is the decision only you can make.
