How Safe Is Your City, Really? Crime Data Across 20 Global Cities

Imagine you are an accountant in Lagos. Every evening at 7 pm you text your daughter: "Are you home?" You lock the car before you start the engine. You pay for estate guards, window bars and a car tracker. You have taught your children rules that children in other countries never learn.

Then you visit a cousin in Toronto. You walk home at 11 pm without thinking. You leave your laptop bag on a café table while you order. Your children play in the park alone.

On the flight back, a quiet thought arrives. What you called "normal" was just the things you had learned to live without.

The short answer: The gap between cities is real and large. Johannesburg's homicide rate is roughly 180 times Singapore's. In cities like Lagos, most robberies are never reported, so the official numbers look better than daily life feels. Insecurity also costs money and time. A Lagos household may spend $1,300 to $4,300 a year and 5 to 10 hours a week on staying safe. Start with homicide rates. Then ask how much crime goes unreported.

The 20 cities

We chose two groups.

Major cities in developing economies: Lagos, Karachi, Manila, Cairo, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Dhaka, Mumbai, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Major cities in developed economies: Toronto, Melbourne, Sydney, London, Munich, Dubai, Singapore, Tokyo, Auckland, Stockholm

Each has a large professional population. Each has very safe and very dangerous areas. The figures below are city-wide averages. That is their strength and their weakness. A gated suburb and an under-policed informal settlement can sit ten kilometres apart in the same city. Where an average misleads, we say so.

Homicide rates: the hardest number to argue with

A murder is almost always reported and recorded. A stolen phone often is not. So homicide is the most reliable number for comparing countries, even where police records are weak.

Sources: UNODC Global Study on Homicide, national police statistics, WHO Mortality Database. Figures are the most recent available as of early 2026 (drawing on 2023-2025 reporting cycles). National agencies usually publish homicide data one to two years late, so treat these as stable multi-year averages, not a single calendar year.

The gap is huge. Johannesburg's rate (35.9) is roughly 180 times Singapore's (0.2). Lagos's rate (9.2) is roughly 5 times Toronto's (1.8). Move a family of four from Singapore to Johannesburg for 20 years, and the risk that one of them is murdered does not rise by a few percent. It rises many times over.

Three figures need context:

• Stockholm (1.2) is higher than its reputation. Most of it is gang shootings in specific suburbs. Central Stockholm is still very safe.
• Mumbai (1.3) is low for a megacity of over 20 million. Its police records are among the more reliable in South Asia.
• Manila (5.4) has fallen from the spikes of the anti-drug campaign of the late 2010s. It is still well above developed-world levels.

But most people meet robbery, assault or theft, not murder. So let us look at those.

Robbery and violent crime

Here the numbers get slippery. In many cities, victims do not report crime. They do not trust the police, reporting takes days, or they fear officers are involved. Where trust is low, the real rate is almost certainly much higher than the figure below.

Note: Reporting rates for developing-country cities are estimates from comparing victim surveys with police statistics. They are a guide, not exact.

Read the last column first. It is where the real story hides.

Think of a restaurant complaint book. If only one unhappy diner in ten bothers to write in it, a thin book does not mean good food. Police robbery figures work the same way.

In Lagos, only about 10-20% of robberies are reported. Adjust for that, and the real rate may be around 225-450 per 100,000. That is close to, or above, Johannesburg's reported rate. The official 45 looks calm only because four in five victims never filed a report.

Mumbai's reported 8.5 looks very low. With a 20-30% reporting rate, the real figure may be closer to 28-42 per 100,000. That is still lower than most cities here, but higher than it looks. A city with honest reporting can look more dangerous than one where crime goes unrecorded. So always ask two questions: what is the rate, and who is counting?

London's 130 is high for a rich city. Much of it is phone snatching, often from mopeds, in a few central boroughs. It is a real nuisance. But it is a different world from the armed robbery and carjacking risk in Lagos, Nairobi or Johannesburg. Losing a phone is not the same as losing your sense of physical safety.

How safe do people feel?

Numbeo's Safety Index asks residents how safe they feel. It is subjective, but it captures daily life in a way crime counts cannot. People who feel unsafe go out less, spend less in the evening, and often leave.

Source: Numbeo Safety Index, latest available data as of early 2026. Scores are crowdsourced and shift a little each year, but the broad tiers have been stable for several cycles.

Dubai scores highest at 84.5. The UAE uses dense CCTV, visible policing and severe penalties. That comes with a legal and social system very different from a Western democracy. But residents report feeling very safe from street crime. If safety is your main lens, Dubai and the wider UAE rank near the top in the world.

Lagos scores 28.7. Karachi scores 31.5. Below 40, most residents feel unsafe walking alone at night and take precautions every day. Below 30, where Lagos, Nairobi, Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Johannesburg sit, staying safe becomes a constant background calculation.

Feeling and fact do not always match. Toronto (57.1) and Melbourne (58.7) are low-crime by world standards. Yet residents feel less safe than the numbers suggest. Media coverage and open drug use in some downtown streets play a part. Read both columns.

The money cost of insecurity

Insecurity costs money that never appears in a cost-of-living comparison. Think of it as a second rent you pay every month just to stay where you are.

Annual Security Spending for a Middle-Class Professional Household

A Lagos family may spend $1,300-$4,300 a year on security. On a mid-career salary of $6,000-$15,000 gross, that can take 10-40% of income, just to avoid being robbed. In Toronto, the same line is close to zero. That money goes to savings, school fees or a home instead.

It adds up. Over a 20-year career, a Johannesburg household at the top of the range could spend well over $100,000 on security. That is a house deposit in a safer country. When people compare salaries across borders, they rarely subtract this cost. That is why many are surprised how much further the same income goes once it disappears. Our guide to the true cost of migrating abroad covers other hidden differences.

What that money buys in Lagos vs Toronto

A professional in Lagos earning NGN 10 million a year (roughly $6,000-$6,500, depending on an exchange rate that has moved sharply in recent years) who spends $2,500 on security gets:

• Gated estate with 24-hour guards
• Car tracker and steering wheel lock
• Home alarm system
• Reinforced doors and window bars
• Still does not feel safe walking at night

A professional in Toronto earning CAD 75,000 a year (roughly $54,000) who spends $200 on security gets:

• Basic apartment lock, provided by the building
• No car tracker needed
• No alarm system needed
• No window bars
• Walks home at midnight regularly

The exchange rate matters here. The naira has lost much of its value in recent years. Nigerian salaries are worth fewer dollars, while security costs, often priced against imported equipment, have held or risen. So the security bill now takes a bigger share of real income. That is one reason more skilled Nigerians are leaving.

The time cost of insecurity

Insecurity also takes your time, and money cannot buy it back. Even the richest Lagos household spends time arranging drivers, guards and safe routes.

A professional in Lagos or Karachi spends roughly 5-10 hours a week on security. Over a year, that is 260-520 hours, or about 6.5 to 13 full working weeks. One to three months of your life, every year, for as long as you live there.

And that is only the part you can count. Psychologists describe constant low-level alertness as chronic stress. It harms sleep, decisions and long-term health. Think of it like a phone app running in the background. You do not see it, but it drains the battery all day.

Crime by type: what you actually face

The type of risk shapes your day more than any single "danger score". A city can be high on murder but easy on visitors, or the other way round.

Property crime (burglary, theft, vehicle crime)

Munich, Dubai, Singapore and Tokyo have very low property crime. Munich's burglary rate of 52 per 100,000 means about 5 burglaries a year in a neighbourhood of 10,000 people. In Johannesburg, the same neighbourhood might see 50-100.

One surprise: car theft in Toronto (215 per 100,000) and London (320) is not small. Organised gangs target keyless cars in both cities. But the risk is different. In Toronto, car theft is an insurance and technology problem. In Nairobi or Johannesburg, it often means an armed carjacking. That is a threat to your life, not just your car.

Kidnapping and ransom

This crime barely exists in rich countries. In several developing ones, it is real and, in some places, growing. It separates the two groups of cities more clearly than anything else.

Note: Kidnappings are heavily under-reported. Families often pay quietly and never call the police, so treat official counts as the minimum, not the maximum.

In Nigeria, kidnapping for ransom has become an organised business. There are mass abductions and roadside seizures on some highways, plus targeted kidnappings in cities. Victims are more and more often middle-class: a doctor, an engineer, a bank manager. Ransoms rise to whatever the family is thought able to pay.

In Canada, Australia, the UK and Germany, most people have never once thought of being kidnapped for money. For many skilled Nigerian, Pakistani and Mexican parents, that single fear, that a child could be taken and held for money, is one of the strongest reasons to move. If it shapes your thinking, our guides for Canada and Australia set out the practical routes.

The safety gender gap

Safety hits women harder. Whether a woman can work late, take the bus alone or live on her own depends on how safe the city is for women. An overall score can hide a city that is fine for men and very limiting for women.

Cairo scores 11 out of 100 for women at night. Almost no women there feel safe walking alone after dark. If you are a professional woman who needs to work late or attend evening events, that is a hard limit on your career and freedom. Men in the same city often do not notice it, because they never live it.

Dubai scores 82. Singapore scores 76. In these cities, women move freely at all hours and take public transport alone. Note that even safe Western cities score far lower here: Toronto at 42, Melbourne at 38, London at 33. Street harassment is a problem almost everywhere, just at very different levels.

The career effect is direct. Where women cannot move safely at night, they miss the client dinners, late deadlines and evening events. For many women, moving to a city that scores high here is more than a lifestyle change. It removes a ceiling on what they can earn.

What the data tells us

1. The gap is not small

This is not "everywhere has crime". Lagos scores 28.7 on the Safety Index. Munich scores 78.1. In one, crime shapes every decision. In the other, most people rarely think about it.

2. Money does not fully make up for it

A gated Lagos estate with armed guards still sits in a city with a homicide rate of 9.2 per 100,000. Your children still go to school there. You still drive those roads.

Private security is like a water filter in your kitchen. It cleans your glass. It does nothing for the river.

3. Safety is public infrastructure

Tokyo, Singapore, Munich and Dubai are safe because of deliberate investment in policing, city design, jobs, social services and the rule of law. Like roads and clean water, you cannot build it privately. You can only move to where it already exists.

The question nobody asks out loud

In Lagos, Karachi, Nairobi and Manila, people rarely talk openly about safety. It can feel disloyal. And when everyone around you lives the same way, it starts to feel normal.

But is it normal to teach your six-year-old not to scream if someone grabs them, in case it makes things worse? To pick your route to work by which roads had fewer carjackings this month? To carry a cheap decoy phone and hide your real one?

These are smart answers to an abnormal situation. That millions of capable people have learned them does not make the situation acceptable.

Be fair to the place you might leave, too. Most of these cities have safe areas, honest police officers and kind neighbours. Wanting a safer life is not a judgement on your country or your people.

Whatever you decide, decide with open eyes, not because "this is how it is here". If safety is what is pushing you, weigh it against income, cost of living, healthcare and schools. If you have children, our guide on where to raise kids by school ranking and safety helps you compare those trade-offs.

Frequently asked questions

Which city on this list is the safest overall?

On low homicide, low property crime and high perceived safety together, Singapore and Tokyo lead, with Munich close behind. Dubai scores highest on Numbeo's perceived safety index and on women's safety at night, but its legal and social system is very different, so learn about it before you move. The answer depends on whether you weight crime figures or daily feeling more.

Why do some low-crime cities feel unsafe to residents?

Feeling and recorded crime often differ. Toronto and Melbourne are low-crime by world standards but score only moderately on perception. Heavy media coverage, visible social problems in some downtown areas, and the way people remember rare dramatic events all play a part. Some cities with heavy under-reporting post falsely "low" official rates.

Can private security make a high-crime city as safe as a low-crime one?

No. A gated estate and a car tracker lower your personal risk. They cannot change the homicide rate on your roads, at your children's school or in your office. City-wide safety is public infrastructure, and a private wall cannot copy it.

How reliable are these crime statistics?

Homicide figures are the most reliable, because murders are almost always recorded. Robbery, assault and burglary figures are much harder to compare, because reporting rates range from around 95% in Tokyo to 10-20% in Lagos. That is why an honest, well-policed city can look worse than one where most crime is never recorded. Always read the reporting rate next to the headline figure.

Which countries do professionals usually move to when safety is the main reason?

Canada, Australia, New Zealand and several Western European countries are the most common. They combine low crime with clear skilled-migration routes. The Gulf states, Dubai in particular, are also popular for very low street crime. Our guides for Canada, Australia and the UAE cover the practical routes into each.

This article is general information, not legal advice. Crime figures are estimates that change over time. Check official sources before you make a decision.