2026-02-25 · NextMigrate Team
How Safe Is Your City, Really? Crime Data Across 20 Global Cities
Safety is one of those things you stop noticing until you do not have it. You adapt. You learn which neighborhoods to avoid after dark. You know not to use your phone on the street in certain areas. You budget for estate security, alarm systems, maybe a driver. You teach your children rules that children in other countries never have to learn.
And then one day you visit Toronto or Munich or Melbourne, and you walk home at 11 PM without thinking about it. You leave your laptop bag on a cafe table while you get a coffee. Your children play in a park without supervision.
That is when you realize that what you thought was normal was actually just the absence of something you had learned to live without.
This article looks at the data. Not anecdotes, not feelings, not the "is it really that bad?" defensiveness that comes up whenever someone raises safety concerns about their home city. Just numbers. What do the crime statistics actually say about the cities where millions of professionals live and work?
The 20 Cities
We selected cities that represent two groups:
Major cities in developing economies: Lagos, Karachi, Manila, Cairo, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Dhaka, Mumbai, Mexico City, Sao Paulo
Major cities in developed economies: Toronto, Melbourne, Sydney, London, Munich, Dubai, Singapore, Tokyo, Auckland, Stockholm
Each of these cities has a large professional population. Each attracts talent. Each has neighborhoods that range from very safe to very dangerous. The data below represents city-wide averages.
Homicide Rates: The Hardest Metric to Argue With
Homicide is the crime statistic least affected by reporting biases. A murder is almost always reported and recorded. This makes it the most reliable cross-country comparison available.
| City | Homicides per 100,000 (Annual) | Risk Category |
|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 0.3 | Very Low |
| Singapore | 0.2 | Very Low |
| Munich | 0.5 | Very Low |
| Dubai | 0.3 | Very Low |
| Stockholm | 1.2 | Low |
| Auckland | 0.7 | Very Low |
| Sydney | 0.8 | Very Low |
| Melbourne | 0.9 | Very Low |
| Toronto | 1.8 | Low |
| London | 1.4 | Low |
| Mumbai | 1.3 | Low |
| Cairo | 2.3 | Low-Moderate |
| Manila | 5.4 | Moderate |
| Dhaka | 2.7 | Low-Moderate |
| Lagos | 9.2 | High |
| Karachi | 8.5 | High |
| Nairobi | 6.7 | Moderate-High |
| Mexico City | 11.3 | High |
| Sao Paulo | 8.1 | High |
| Johannesburg | 35.9 | Very High |
Sources: UNODC Global Study on Homicide, national police statistics, WHO Mortality Database. Figures are most recent available (2023-2025 estimates).
The gap between the safest and most dangerous cities on this list is staggering. Johannesburg's homicide rate is 180 times that of Singapore. Lagos has a homicide rate roughly 10 times that of Toronto.
But homicide rates alone do not tell the full story. Most professionals are more likely to encounter robbery, assault, or property crime in their daily lives than homicide. Let us look at those.
Robbery and Violent Crime
Robbery statistics are harder to compare because reporting rates vary significantly. In many developing countries, victims do not report crimes because they have little confidence in the police, or because reporting itself can be a costly and time-consuming process. The numbers below should be read with the understanding that actual rates in cities with low police trust are likely significantly higher than reported.
| City | Reported Robberies per 100,000 | Assault Rate per 100,000 | Estimated Reporting Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 2.4 | 21 | ~95% |
| Singapore | 5.1 | 28 | ~90% |
| Munich | 42 | 290 | ~85% |
| Dubai | 8.3 | 35 | ~80% |
| Auckland | 38 | 340 | ~80% |
| Stockholm | 78 | 450 | ~85% |
| Sydney | 27 | 320 | ~82% |
| Melbourne | 32 | 350 | ~82% |
| Toronto | 65 | 380 | ~80% |
| London | 130 | 520 | ~78% |
| Mumbai | 8.5 (reported) | 35 (reported) | ~20-30% |
| Cairo | 15 (reported) | 45 (reported) | ~25-35% |
| Manila | 18 (reported) | 52 (reported) | ~20-30% |
| Dhaka | 12 (reported) | 38 (reported) | ~15-25% |
| Lagos | 45 (reported) | 85 (reported) | ~10-20% |
| Karachi | 68 (reported) | 95 (reported) | ~15-25% |
| Nairobi | 52 (reported) | 120 (reported) | ~15-25% |
| Mexico City | 210 (reported) | 340 (reported) | ~25-35% |
| Sao Paulo | 180 (reported) | 280 (reported) | ~30-40% |
| Johannesburg | 350 (reported) | 580 (reported) | ~30-40% |
Note: Reporting rates for developing country cities are estimates based on victimization surveys vs. police statistics.
Look at the "estimated reporting rate" column. In Lagos, only an estimated 10-20% of robberies are reported to police. If you adjust for this, the actual robbery rate in Lagos may be 225-450 per 100,000 — comparable to or higher than Johannesburg's reported rate.
Mumbai's reported robbery rate looks remarkably low at 8.5 per 100,000. But with a reporting rate of only 20-30%, the actual rate may be 28-42 per 100,000 — still lower than most cities on this list, but significantly higher than the official number suggests.
Safety Perception: How Safe Do People Feel?
Numbeo's Safety Index surveys residents about their perceived safety. This is subjective but valuable because it captures the day-to-day experience of living in a city.
| City | Safety Index (0-100) | Safety Walking Alone at Night | Worry About Being Mugged/Robbed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 80.7 | Very High | Very Low |
| Singapore | 79.4 | Very High | Very Low |
| Munich | 78.1 | High | Low |
| Dubai | 84.5 | Very High | Very Low |
| Auckland | 55.2 | Moderate | Moderate |
| Stockholm | 52.6 | Moderate | Moderate |
| Sydney | 63.4 | Moderate-High | Low-Moderate |
| Melbourne | 58.7 | Moderate | Moderate |
| Toronto | 57.1 | Moderate | Moderate |
| London | 46.3 | Moderate | Moderate-High |
| Mumbai | 52.1 | Low-Moderate | Moderate-High |
| Cairo | 48.5 | Low-Moderate | Moderate-High |
| Manila | 39.2 | Low | High |
| Dhaka | 42.8 | Low | High |
| Lagos | 28.7 | Very Low | Very High |
| Karachi | 31.5 | Very Low | Very High |
| Nairobi | 26.8 | Very Low | Very High |
| Mexico City | 32.1 | Very Low | Very High |
| Sao Paulo | 27.4 | Very Low | Very High |
| Johannesburg | 18.6 | Very Low | Very High |
Source: Numbeo Safety Index 2025
Dubai scores the highest at 84.5, which may surprise some people. The UAE invests heavily in public safety, with extensive CCTV coverage, visible police presence, and severe penalties for crime. Whether you agree with the approach or not, the result is a city where residents feel exceptionally safe.
Lagos scores 28.7 out of 100. Karachi scores 31.5. For context, a Safety Index below 40 typically means that most residents feel unsafe walking alone at night and take active precautions against crime as part of their daily routine.
The Financial Cost of Insecurity
Safety is not just about physical risk. It has a measurable financial cost. Professionals in high-crime cities spend significant money on security measures that simply do not exist in safer environments.
Annual Security Spending for a Middle-Class Professional Household
| City | Estate/Building Security (USD/year) | Vehicle Security (USD/year) | Home Security Systems (USD/year) | Personal Safety Spending (USD/year) | Total Annual Security Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagos | $600 - $2,400 | $200 - $600 | $300 - $800 | $200 - $500 | $1,300 - $4,300 |
| Karachi | $400 - $1,800 | $150 - $500 | $200 - $600 | $150 - $400 | $900 - $3,300 |
| Johannesburg | $800 - $3,600 | $300 - $800 | $500 - $1,500 | $300 - $800 | $1,900 - $6,700 |
| Manila | $300 - $1,200 | $100 - $400 | $200 - $500 | $100 - $300 | $700 - $2,400 |
| Nairobi | $500 - $2,000 | $200 - $600 | $300 - $800 | $200 - $500 | $1,200 - $3,900 |
| Cairo | $300 - $1,000 | $100 - $300 | $150 - $400 | $100 - $250 | $650 - $1,950 |
| Toronto | $0 - $200 (condo fees) | $0 | $0 - $200 | $0 | $0 - $400 |
| Melbourne | $0 - $200 | $0 | $0 - $200 | $0 | $0 - $400 |
| Munich | $0 - $150 | $0 | $0 - $150 | $0 | $0 - $300 |
| Dubai | $0 - $200 | $0 | $0 - $200 | $0 | $0 - $400 |
In Lagos, a professional family might spend $2,000-$4,000 per year on security. On a salary of $8,000-$15,000, that is 13-50% of gross income dedicated to not being robbed. In Toronto, the equivalent spending is close to zero.
This is a hidden tax that never appears in cost-of-living comparisons.
What That Money Buys in Lagos vs. Toronto
A professional in Lagos earning NGN 10 million ($6,200) per year who spends $2,500 on security:
- Gated estate with 24-hour guards
- Car tracker and steering wheel lock
- Home alarm system
- Reinforced doors and window bars
- Still does not feel safe walking at night
A professional in Toronto earning CAD 70,000 ($52,000) per year who spends $200 on security:
- Basic apartment lock (provided by building)
- No car tracker needed
- No alarm system needed
- No window bars
- Walks home at midnight regularly
The Time Tax of Insecurity
Beyond direct financial costs, insecurity imposes a time tax. Every minute spent on security-related decisions is a minute not spent on productive work, family time, or rest.
| Activity | Time Spent Per Week (High-Crime City) | Time Spent Per Week (Low-Crime City) |
|---|---|---|
| Planning safe routes | 30-60 minutes | 0 minutes |
| Avoiding certain areas/times | 2-4 hours of restricted movement | 0 hours |
| Securing home before leaving | 10-15 minutes/day | 1-2 minutes/day |
| Checking on vehicle | 10-20 minutes/day | 0 minutes |
| Coordinating with security | 15-30 minutes/week | 0 minutes |
| Monitoring children's whereabouts | 1-2 hours/day beyond normal | 15-30 minutes |
| Processing security-related stress | Constant background | Minimal |
Conservatively, a professional in Lagos or Karachi spends 5-10 hours per week on security-related activities and decisions. Over a year, that is 260-520 hours — equivalent to 6.5 to 13 full work weeks. That is a month to three months of productive time lost to insecurity every single year.
Crime by Type: What You Actually Face
Different cities have different crime profiles. Understanding the specific risks matters more than an aggregate "danger score."
Property Crime (Burglary, Theft, Vehicle Crime)
| City | Burglary Rate per 100,000 | Vehicle Theft per 100,000 | Pickpocket Risk (Numbeo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lagos | High (poorly documented) | Very High | High |
| Karachi | High | High | High |
| Manila | Moderate-High | Moderate | Very High |
| Cairo | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate-High |
| Mumbai | Moderate (reported) | Low-Moderate | High |
| Nairobi | Very High | Very High | High |
| Johannesburg | Very High | Very High | Very High |
| Toronto | 190 | 215 | Low-Moderate |
| Melbourne | 340 | 280 | Low |
| London | 285 | 320 | Moderate-High |
| Munich | 52 | 38 | Low |
| Dubai | 15 | 8 | Very Low |
| Singapore | 12 | 5 | Very Low |
| Tokyo | 45 | 22 | Very Low |
Munich, Dubai, Singapore, and Tokyo stand out for extremely low property crime rates. Munich's burglary rate of 52 per 100,000 means that in a neighborhood of 10,000 people, you would expect roughly 5 burglaries per year. In Johannesburg, that number might be 50-100 in the same sized neighborhood.
Kidnapping and Ransom
This is a crime category that barely exists in developed countries but represents a real and growing threat for professionals in several developing nations.
| Country | Reported Kidnappings (Annual, National) | Ransom Range (USD) | Primary Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 4,500+ (2024 estimate) | $1,000 - $500,000+ | Business owners, professionals, their children |
| India | 60,000+ (reported) | $500 - $50,000 | Wide range; includes express kidnappings |
| Philippines | 120+ (reported) | $5,000 - $200,000 | Chinese-Filipino business community especially |
| Pakistan | 2,200+ (reported) | $1,000 - $100,000+ | Business owners, professionals |
| Egypt | 150+ (reported) | $2,000 - $50,000 | Increasingly targeting middle class |
| Mexico | 1,500+ (reported; actual estimated 5x higher) | $5,000 - $500,000 | Business owners, professionals, their families |
| Canada | ~350 (most are custody disputes) | Ransom-motivated kidnapping is extremely rare | N/A |
| Australia | ~200 (most are domestic/custody) | Ransom-motivated kidnapping is extremely rare | N/A |
| UK | ~600 (includes trafficking) | Ransom-motivated kidnapping is extremely rare | N/A |
| Germany | ~100 | Ransom-motivated kidnapping is extremely rare | N/A |
In Nigeria, kidnapping for ransom has become an industry. In 2024, an estimated 4,500+ kidnappings were reported, with actual numbers believed to be significantly higher. The targets are increasingly middle-class professionals — not just the ultra-wealthy. A doctor, an engineer, a mid-level bank manager — all viable targets in certain regions.
In Canada, Australia, the UK, and Germany, the concept of being kidnapped for ransom is so far outside normal experience that most residents have never considered it as a personal risk.
The Safety Gender Gap
Safety data affects women differently and more severely. The ability to move freely, work late, use public transportation, and live independently is fundamentally shaped by how safe a city is for women specifically.
| City | Women's Safety Walking Alone at Night (Numbeo, 0-100) | Sexual Harassment Prevalence | Street Harassment Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | 72 | Low | Low |
| Singapore | 76 | Low | Very Low |
| Munich | 65 | Low | Low |
| Dubai | 82 | Very Low | Very Low |
| Toronto | 42 | Moderate | Low-Moderate |
| Melbourne | 38 | Moderate | Low-Moderate |
| London | 33 | Moderate | Moderate |
| Mumbai | 20 | Very High | Very High |
| Cairo | 11 | Very High | Very High |
| Lagos | 15 | High | Very High |
| Karachi | 12 | High | Very High |
| Manila | 25 | High | High |
| Nairobi | 14 | High | Very High |
| Johannesburg | 9 | Very High | Very High |
Cairo scores 11 out of 100 for women's nighttime safety. This means that virtually no women in Cairo feel safe walking alone at night. For a professional woman — someone who might need to work late, attend evening networking events, or simply live an independent life — this is not an inconvenience. It is a fundamental constraint on career development and personal freedom.
Dubai, by contrast, scores 82. Singapore scores 76. These are cities where women can and do move freely at all hours, take public transportation alone, and navigate the city without a constant calculus of risk.
What The Data Actually Tells Us
There are three conclusions that the data supports clearly.
1. The Safety Gap Is Not Small
This is not a case of "everywhere has crime." The difference between living in Lagos (Safety Index: 28.7) and living in Munich (Safety Index: 78.1) is not marginal. It is the difference between a city where crime is an ever-present background concern that shapes every decision, and a city where most residents rarely think about personal safety at all.
2. Money Does Not Fully Compensate
You can live in a gated estate in Lagos with armed guards and a security driver, and you are still living in a city with a homicide rate of 9.2 per 100,000. Your children still attend schools in that city. You still commute on those roads. You still visit markets, restaurants, and offices in that environment. Private security reduces your personal risk, but it does not eliminate it, and it comes at a financial and psychological cost that compounds over decades.
3. Safety Is Infrastructure
The safest cities on this list — Tokyo, Singapore, Munich, Dubai — are not safe by accident. They are safe because of deliberate investments in policing, urban design, economic opportunity, social services, and rule of law. Safety is a form of public infrastructure, just like roads, electricity, and water supply. When that infrastructure exists, everyone benefits, including the professional class. When it does not, everyone pays — some with money, some with freedom, some with their lives.
The Question Nobody Asks Out Loud
Professionals in Lagos, Karachi, Nairobi, and Manila rarely have open conversations about safety, partly because it feels disloyal to criticize your home city, and partly because everyone around you is dealing with the same reality, so it feels normal.
But it is not normal. It is not normal to teach your six-year-old that if someone grabs them, they should not scream because screaming might make the situation worse. It is not normal to choose your route to work based on which roads have fewer carjacking incidents this month. It is not normal to carry two phones — a cheap decoy and your real one hidden away — as standard practice.
These are adaptations to an abnormal situation. And the fact that millions of competent, ambitious professionals have made these adaptations does not make the underlying situation acceptable. It just makes the adaptation impressive.
The crime data is clear. The gap between the safest and most dangerous major cities is not a matter of perception or media bias. It is a structural reality that affects career trajectory, family well-being, financial planning, and fundamental quality of life.
What you do with that information is, of course, your decision. But it should be a decision made with open eyes, not a default accepted because "this is just how it is here."
It does not have to be how it is. And increasingly, professionals with the skills and qualifications to choose are deciding that it will not be.
