2026-02-24 · NextMigrate Team
What Happens to Your Career When the Country Around It Becomes Unstable
You did everything right. You got the degree, built the skills, landed the job, earned the promotions. You are good at what you do. And yet, every year, your career feels like it is moving in the wrong direction — not because of anything you did, but because of everything happening around you.
The currency lost 40% of its value. Inflation ate through your raise before you received it. The company you work for is struggling because its customers have less purchasing power. The best engineers on your team left for Canada, and now you are covering three roles. The office generator runs out of diesel at 2 PM on Thursdays.
This is what career compression looks like. It is not a personal failure. It is a macroeconomic force that affects millions of skilled professionals in countries experiencing political and economic instability. And it compounds — quietly, relentlessly — over 5 and 10 years in ways that are difficult to reverse.
The Mechanics of Career Compression
Career compression happens when external instability erodes the value of your work faster than your skills and experience can increase it. It operates through several interconnected mechanisms.
Currency Devaluation
This is the most visible mechanism. When your country's currency loses value against the dollar, your salary — denominated in local currency — loses purchasing power for anything priced internationally. That includes imported goods, technology, travel, international education, and savings measured in global terms.
Here is what currency devaluation has looked like in three countries across multiple time horizons:
Currency vs. USD: 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, and 10-Year Depreciation
| Currency | Feb 2025 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2021 | Feb 2016 | 1-Year Loss | 3-Year Loss | 5-Year Loss | 10-Year Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigerian Naira (NGN) | ~1,550/USD | ~460/USD | ~410/USD | ~199/USD | -8% | -70% | -74% | -87% |
| Pakistani Rupee (PKR) | ~280/USD | ~262/USD | ~160/USD | ~105/USD | -2% | -6% | -43% | -63% |
| Egyptian Pound (EGP) | ~50/USD | ~30.9/USD | ~15.7/USD | ~7.8/USD | -3% | -38% | -69% | -84% |
A Nigerian professional earning 10 million naira in 2021 had a salary worth approximately $24,400 USD. If that same person received a generous 50% raise over five years — now earning 15 million naira — their salary in 2026 is worth approximately $9,700 USD. They earned a 50% raise. They took a 60% pay cut in global terms.
This is not an edge case. This is the default experience for millions of professionals in these countries.
The Pakistani Experience in Detail
Pakistan's currency story is particularly instructive because it shows what happens when depreciation occurs in waves rather than a steady slide:
| Period | PKR/USD Start | PKR/USD End | Trigger Event | % Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2018 - Dec 2018 | 110 | 139 | IMF bailout negotiations, current account crisis | -21% |
| Jan 2019 - Dec 2019 | 139 | 155 | IMF programme implementation, fiscal austerity | -10% |
| Jan 2020 - Dec 2021 | 155 | 178 | COVID-19, commodity price spikes | -13% |
| Jan 2022 - Dec 2022 | 178 | 226 | Political crisis (PM ousted), IMF conditions stalled | -21% |
| Jan 2023 - Jun 2023 | 226 | 286 | Managed float ended, parallel market convergence | -21% |
| Jul 2023 - Feb 2026 | 286 | 280 | Relative stabilisation under new IMF programme | +2% |
A senior software engineer in Lahore earning PKR 3,000,000/year in 2018 ($27,300 at the time) who received annual raises of 15% now earns PKR 6,000,000/year — but that is worth only $21,400 USD. Their nominal salary doubled. Their dollar salary dropped 22%.
A senior software engineer in Karachi earning PKR 5,000,000/year ($18,000) today earns less in dollar terms than a junior developer in Toronto ($45,000-55,000).
The Egyptian Experience in Detail
Egypt's devaluations have been sudden and catastrophic rather than gradual:
| Date | EGP/USD Before | EGP/USD After | % Overnight Loss | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2016 | 8.88 | 18.0 | -51% | Currency float mandated by IMF |
| March 2022 | 15.7 | 18.2 | -14% | Capital flight after Russia-Ukraine war |
| October 2022 | 19.7 | 24.7 | -20% | Second devaluation, IMF conditions |
| January 2023 | 24.7 | 30.9 | -20% | Third devaluation |
| March 2024 | 30.9 | 49.5 | -38% | Ras El-Hekma deal, managed float |
An Egyptian doctor earning EGP 300,000/year in 2020 ($19,100) who received a 30% raise now earns EGP 390,000 — worth $7,800 USD. A 30% raise, a 59% real pay cut.
Egyptian pharmacists, accountants, and civil engineers report similar compression. A mid-career civil engineer in Cairo earning EGP 500,000/year ($10,000 USD) earns less than a fresh graduate engineer in Germany ($42,000 USD).
Inflation Without Corresponding Raises
Currency devaluation drives import-price inflation, which drives general inflation. Here is the recent inflation history across all three countries:
| Year | Nigeria (YoY Inflation) | Pakistan (YoY Inflation) | Egypt (YoY Inflation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15.8% | 10.7% | 5.7% |
| 2021 | 17.0% | 12.3% | 6.2% |
| 2022 | 21.3% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| 2023 | 28.9% | 29.2% | 33.9% |
| 2024 | 33.2% | 23.4% | 28.5% |
| 2025 (est.) | 25-30% | 12-15% | 18-22% |
Corporate salary increases do not keep pace. A typical annual raise in these markets is 10-20%. When inflation runs at 30%, a 15% raise is a 15% real pay cut. Over five years of this, the cumulative erosion is severe.
| Scenario | Year 1 Salary | Year 5 Salary (nominal) | Year 5 Salary (real, inflation-adjusted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15% annual raise, 30% annual inflation | 100 | 201 | 72 |
| 20% annual raise, 25% annual inflation | 100 | 249 | 95 |
| 10% annual raise, 30% annual inflation | 100 | 161 | 58 |
| 25% annual raise, 35% annual inflation | 100 | 305 | 69 |
Even in the most generous scenario — 20% annual raises against 25% inflation — you are barely treading water. In the worst case, your real purchasing power drops by over 40% in five years despite consistent raises.
Inflation vs. Salary Growth: Country-Specific Comparison
| Country | Average Inflation (2020-2025) | Average Tech Salary Growth (2020-2025) | Average Non-Tech Salary Growth | Real Wage Change (Tech) | Real Wage Change (Non-Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | ~24% per year | ~18% per year | ~10% per year | -6% per year (cumulative: -26%) | -14% per year (cumulative: -52%) |
| Pakistan | ~19% per year | ~15% per year | ~10% per year | -4% per year (cumulative: -19%) | -9% per year (cumulative: -37%) |
| Egypt | ~18% per year | ~15% per year | ~8% per year | -3% per year (cumulative: -14%) | -10% per year (cumulative: -40%) |
Non-tech professionals — accountants, teachers, civil servants, nurses — are hit hardest because their employers have even less ability to adjust salaries upward.
Brain Drain and Talent Compression
When the best professionals leave, the remaining workforce absorbs their responsibilities without proportional compensation increases. This is happening at enormous scale.
Brain Drain Statistics by Country
Nigeria:
- 16,000+ doctors emigrated between 2019-2024 (Medical and Dental Council of Nigeria estimates). Nigeria has approximately 75,000 registered doctors for 220 million people — a ratio of 1:2,933. The WHO recommends 1:1,000.
- 71,000+ Nigerian nurses registered in the UK, US, Canada, and Saudi Arabia between 2020-2025.
- The Nigerian tech sector lost an estimated 30,000-50,000 professionals to emigration between 2020-2025 (industry estimates based on visa data from UK, Canada, and Germany).
- "Japa" generation: a 2023 survey by Jobberman found 72% of Nigerian professionals aged 25-35 were actively exploring emigration.
Pakistan:
- 832,000 Pakistanis emigrated in 2023 alone (Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment), the highest annual figure in the country's history.
- IT sector: Pakistan's IT exports grew to $3.2 billion in FY2024, but a significant portion of this growth came from freelancers and contractors working for foreign clients — effectively exporting talent without the professionals physically leaving.
- 10,000+ Pakistani doctors left for the UK, Ireland, and Gulf states between 2020-2025.
- Engineering: the Pakistan Engineering Council reports that 15% of registered engineers under 35 are now based overseas.
Egypt:
- An estimated 6 million Egyptians live abroad (CAPMAS, 2024), with the Gulf states absorbing the largest share.
- 25,000+ Egyptian doctors are registered to practice in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait.
- Egyptian IT professionals are increasingly targeting Germany (which granted 4,200+ ICT skilled worker visas to Egyptians in 2023) and Canada.
- The construction and engineering sectors lost significant talent to Gulf mega-projects (NEOM, Qatar World Cup infrastructure, UAE real estate).
For the people who stay, this creates a paradox: they become more valuable (because talent is scarcer) but are compensated less (because the economy cannot support higher wages). They do more work for less real pay. Over time, this produces career stagnation disguised as career progression — you get the title, you get the responsibility, but the economics work against you.
How Employers in Unstable Markets Reduce Headcount
When economic instability hits, companies do not simply announce layoffs. The process is more gradual and less visible. Understanding the pattern helps you recognise when it is happening to your organisation:
Stage 1: Hiring Freeze (Month 0-6) The company stops filling open positions. Existing employees absorb the workload. This is often framed positively: "we're being lean" or "we need to be strategic about our next hires."
Stage 2: Benefits Erosion (Month 3-12) Non-salary benefits are quietly reduced. Health insurance coverage downgrades. Training budgets are frozen. Office perks disappear. The generator runs fewer hours. Internet bandwidth is not renewed. These cuts compound: a reduction from premium to basic health coverage alone can cost a family $1,000-2,000/year in out-of-pocket medical expenses.
Stage 3: Salary Freezes Disguised as Delays (Month 6-18) Annual reviews are "postponed." Promotions are approved in title only, without salary adjustments. Bonuses are "deferred" indefinitely. The company tells you it is "temporary" and will be made up "when things improve."
Stage 4: Attrition Through Devaluation (Month 12-24) The company does not need to fire people because currency devaluation and inflation do the work. If you gave everyone a 10% raise but inflation is 30%, you effectively cut their real compensation by 20% without sending a single termination letter. The strongest performers leave for foreign opportunities. The company is left with a smaller, less experienced, more stretched workforce.
Stage 5: Restructuring and Layoffs (Month 18-36) By this point, revenue has often declined in real terms, clients have reduced spending, and the company has no choice but to cut staff. Layoffs of 10-30% are common. Severance is minimal (often 1-2 months) because the company is genuinely cash-strapped. Those who remain take on the work of those who left — again — without corresponding pay increases.
Stage 6: Zombie Mode (Month 36+) The company continues to operate but is no longer growing. It becomes a survival machine. Career advancement becomes impossible because there are no new projects, no expansion, and no budget for the roles that would create upward mobility. Senior professionals find themselves doing the same job at the same (or lower) real salary for years.
This pattern played out at dozens of Nigerian fintech companies in 2023-2024, at Pakistani textile and IT firms in 2022-2023, and at Egyptian construction and manufacturing companies after each devaluation event. Recognising which stage your employer is in helps you calibrate when to accelerate your exit planning.
Investment and Opportunity Shrinkage
Political instability reduces foreign direct investment, constrains venture capital, and causes domestic companies to operate in survival mode rather than growth mode. This directly affects career opportunities.
| Metric | Nigeria | Pakistan | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDI inflow, 2019 (USD billions) | $3.3B | $2.5B | $9.0B |
| FDI inflow, 2024 (USD billions, est.) | $1.1B | $1.8B | $4.5B |
| FDI decline | -67% | -28% | -50% |
| VC funding, 2022 (tech) | $1.2B | $366M | $540M |
| VC funding, 2024 (tech, est.) | $380M | $180M | $210M |
| VC decline | -68% | -51% | -61% |
| New tech startup registrations, 2024 vs 2022 | -45% | -30% | -35% |
In a stable, growing economy, senior professionals have options: they can join high-growth startups, negotiate competing offers, or start their own ventures with access to capital. In a contracting economy, the option set narrows. You stay where you are because there is nowhere better to go. The job market becomes a game of musical chairs with fewer chairs every year.
The 5-Year and 10-Year Compounding Effect
The most dangerous aspect of career compression is that it compounds. Let us model two hypothetical engineers — both 28 years old, both senior developers — one in Lagos, one who moves to Toronto.
Engineer A: Stays in Lagos
| Year | Annual Salary (NGN) | USD Equivalent (assuming continued devaluation) | Annual Savings (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 20,000,000 | $12,900 | $2,500 |
| Year 3 | 27,000,000 | $14,200 | $2,800 |
| Year 5 | 35,000,000 | $15,900 | $3,000 |
| Year 10 | 55,000,000 | $18,300 | $3,500 |
These projections assume naira salaries grow at 12% per year but the naira continues to weaken at 8-10% per year against the dollar — a conservative assumption based on the trend of the past decade. Savings are modest because the cost of living in naira terms keeps rising.
Cumulative savings over 10 years: approximately $30,000 USD.
Engineer B: Moves to Toronto
| Year | Annual Salary (CAD) | USD Equivalent | Annual Savings (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 110,000 | $80,000 | $22,000 |
| Year 3 | 130,000 | $95,000 | $28,000 |
| Year 5 | 150,000 | $109,000 | $33,000 |
| Year 10 | 185,000 | $135,000 | $42,000 |
Cumulative savings over 10 years: approximately $310,000 USD.
The difference — roughly $280,000 over a decade — is not just a number. It is the down payment on a house. It is a child's entire university education. It is the seed capital for a business. It is the difference between financial fragility and financial resilience.
And this model is conservative. It does not account for investment returns on the larger savings base, employer pension matching common in Canada, or the potential for significant equity compensation at tech companies.
The Same Model for Pakistan and Egypt
Pakistani Developer: Stays in Lahore vs. Moves to Berlin
| Year | Lahore Salary (PKR) | USD Equiv. | Lahore Savings (USD) | Berlin Salary (EUR) | USD Equiv. | Berlin Savings (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5,000,000 | $17,900 | $3,200 | 62,000 | $67,100 | $18,000 |
| Year 5 | 9,500,000 | $28,000 | $5,000 | 82,000 | $88,800 | $26,000 |
| Year 10 | 16,000,000 | $38,000 | $7,000 | 105,000 | $113,600 | $35,000 |
| 10-Year Cumulative Savings | $50,000 | $265,000 |
Gap: $215,000 over 10 years.
Egyptian Accountant: Stays in Cairo vs. Moves to Dubai
| Year | Cairo Salary (EGP) | USD Equiv. | Cairo Savings (USD) | Dubai Salary (AED) | USD Equiv. | Dubai Savings (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 350,000 | $7,000 | $1,200 | 240,000 | $65,300 | $28,000 |
| Year 5 | 600,000 | $9,200 | $1,800 | 320,000 | $87,100 | $38,000 |
| Year 10 | 900,000 | $10,600 | $2,200 | 420,000 | $114,300 | $50,000 |
| 10-Year Cumulative Savings | $18,000 | $400,000 |
The Egypt-to-Dubai gap is the most extreme: $382,000 over 10 years. Dubai's zero income tax amplifies the savings difference massively. This is why the Gulf states have absorbed such a large share of Egyptian, Pakistani, and Nigerian professional emigration.
The Countries Where This Is Happening Now
While Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt are the most dramatic current examples, career compression driven by instability is a pattern with a long history:
Nigeria is experiencing the convergence of currency collapse, security challenges across multiple regions, fuel subsidy removal, and the resulting inflation spike. Young professionals — particularly in tech, healthcare, and finance — are emigrating at the highest rates in the country's history. The term "japa" has become a cultural phenomenon.
Key data points:
- Naira has lost 87% of its dollar value since 2016
- Inflation averaged 28% in 2023-2024
- Petrol prices rose from NGN 187/litre to NGN 700+/litre after subsidy removal in 2023
- Electricity tariffs increased 240% for Band A customers in April 2024 (NGN 68 to NGN 225/kWh)
- Food inflation specifically exceeded 40% in 2024
- Unemployment: officially 5% (NBS methodology change); effective underemployment estimated at 30-40%
Pakistan has faced a rolling economic crisis since 2022: IMF bailouts, currency controls, political turmoil, and inflation that peaked above 35%. The tech sector, once a bright spot, has seen layoffs and salary freezes even as the global tech market recovered. Engineers and developers are actively pursuing opportunities in the Gulf, Canada, and Europe.
Key data points:
- PKR lost 63% of its dollar value since 2016
- Inflation peaked at 38% in May 2023
- Interest rates reached 22% in 2023 (SBP policy rate), crushing business expansion
- Electricity tariffs increased 50-100% between 2022-2024, with average bills exceeding PKR 30,000/month for middle-class households
- 832,000 Pakistanis emigrated in 2023 — highest ever recorded
- IT sector: 35% of registered freelancers on international platforms are now Pakistani, but most earn $5-15/hour
Egypt devalued the pound multiple times between 2022 and 2025, each time compressing the dollar-denominated value of Egyptian salaries. The cost of living has risen sharply while wages have lagged. Skilled professionals — engineers, doctors, accountants — are leaving for the Gulf states, Canada, and Germany in increasing numbers.
Key data points:
- EGP lost 84% of its dollar value since 2016
- Inflation peaked at 38% in September 2023
- Rent in Cairo increased 40-80% between 2022-2025 in naira/pound terms
- Food prices increased 70%+ between 2022-2025
- The government raised fuel prices 8 times between 2022-2024
- A 2024 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt found 60% of companies reported difficulty retaining skilled employees due to emigration
The pattern repeats across other countries facing similar dynamics: Lebanon (LBP lost 98% since 2019), Argentina (ARS lost 90% since 2019), Ghana (GHS lost 62% since 2020), Kenya (KES lost 25% since 2021), Bangladesh (BDT lost 30% since 2021). The specific circumstances differ, but the career compression mechanism is the same.
Currency Depreciation Summary: Multiple Countries
| Country | Currency | 1-Year Loss | 3-Year Loss | 5-Year Loss | 10-Year Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | NGN | -8% | -70% | -74% | -87% |
| Egypt | EGP | -3% | -38% | -69% | -84% |
| Pakistan | PKR | -2% | -6% | -43% | -63% |
| Lebanon | LBP | 0% | -10% | -98% | -98% |
| Argentina | ARS | -45% | -80% | -90% | -97% |
| Ghana | GHS | -15% | -55% | -62% | -78% |
| Bangladesh | BDT | -5% | -15% | -30% | -42% |
| Kenya | KES | -8% | -20% | -25% | -35% |
Migration as Financial Hedge
There is a way to think about migration that does not require you to frame it as "leaving" or "giving up" on your country. You can think about it the same way you think about any other financial decision: as diversification.
If all your income, savings, career equity, and future earning potential are denominated in a single unstable currency and tied to a single unstable economy, you are running a concentrated portfolio. Any financial advisor would tell you that concentrated portfolios are high-risk.
Moving your career to a stable economy is the equivalent of diversifying into stable assets. Your skills are the same. Your work ethic is the same. But the currency your labour is denominated in, the economic system your career operates within, and the institutional stability that protects your savings — these change fundamentally.
This is not about national pride or loyalty. People send money home. They invest in businesses back home. They return with capital, skills, and networks. But they do all of this from a position of financial strength rather than financial fragility.
The Remittance Multiplier Effect
Migration is not just individual diversification — it creates value for the home country through remittances:
| Country | Annual Remittance Inflow (2024, USD) | % of GDP | Average Monthly Remittance per Migrant Worker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | $20.1B | 4.8% | $350-600 |
| Pakistan | $30.3B | 8.5% | $300-500 |
| Egypt | $22.1B | 5.4% | $400-700 |
| Philippines | $37.2B | 9.3% | $400-600 |
A Nigerian software developer earning NGN 20M/year in Lagos ($12,900) can send perhaps $2,000-3,000/year home to family. The same developer earning $120,000 in Toronto can send $15,000-25,000/year home while still saving aggressively for themselves. The absolute contribution to the home economy is 5-10x larger from abroad.
What This Means Practically
If you are a skilled professional in a country experiencing economic instability, the data suggests that the cost of waiting is not zero. Every year of career compression is a year of compounding losses that become harder to recover.
The Cost of Waiting: A Concrete Example
Consider a 28-year-old Nigerian developer earning NGN 20M who begins the Express Entry process today versus one who waits 3 years:
| Scenario | Migration Age | Years Earning Abroad (to age 55) | Cumulative Savings Abroad (USD) | Cumulative Savings if Stayed (USD) | Net Gain from Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Migrates at 28 | 29 | 26 years | ~$850,000 | ~$78,000 (26 years in Nigeria) | +$772,000 |
| Migrates at 31 | 32 | 23 years | ~$740,000 | ~$9,000 (3 years in Nigeria) + ~$740,000 | +$662,000 |
| Migrates at 35 | 36 | 19 years | ~$600,000 | ~$15,000 (7 years in Nigeria) + ~$600,000 | +$510,000 |
| Never migrates | — | 0 | $0 | ~$78,000 (27 years in Nigeria) | $0 |
Each year of delay costs approximately $25,000-40,000 in lifetime savings. Additionally, CRS points for age decrease after 30 and drop sharply after 35, making the immigration process itself harder.
This does not mean you should panic or make rash decisions. Migration is a major life change that requires planning, savings, and careful execution. But it does mean that treating it as something you will "think about later" has a measurable cost.
The professionals who navigate this best tend to start preparing early — getting language test scores, credential assessments, and immigration profiles in order — even if they are not sure they will ultimately move. Having options is itself a form of financial security.
Preparation Checklist: Start Today Even If You Are Not Ready to Move
- Take the IELTS/CELPIP — Score is valid for 2 years. Cost: $250-350. Even if you do not use it, it proves your English level for any future application.
- Get your Educational Credential Assessment — WES evaluation is valid for 5 years. Cost: $200-300. Takes 5-8 weeks. Start now so it is ready when you need it.
- Request employer reference letters — Ask current and past employers for detailed reference letters matching NOC/SOC job descriptions. Do this while you are still employed; it is much harder after you leave.
- Obtain police clearance certificates — From every country you have lived in for 6+ months. These expire (typically 12 months), so time this carefully.
- Build an emergency fund in stable currency — Even $1,000-2,000 in a USD or EUR account provides a buffer against sudden devaluation.
- Create Express Entry / Skilled Worker profiles — For Canada, UK, Australia, or Germany. This is free (for Canada Express Entry) and puts you in the system.
- Research Provincial Nominee Programs — Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, and Alberta have streams that do not require a job offer and have lower CRS cutoffs.
- Consider learning French — Adds 50 CRS points for Canada. Even 6 months of study can make the difference between receiving an ITA and waiting indefinitely.
- Network on LinkedIn — Connect with recruiters and professionals in your target country. 40% of skilled immigrant job offers come through professional networks.
- Calculate your personal cost-of-waiting number — Use the tables in this article to estimate what each year of delay costs you in lifetime savings.
If you are starting to think about this seriously — if the numbers in this article feel uncomfortably familiar — we can help you understand what your specific options look like. What countries your profile qualifies for, what the realistic timeline and costs are, and what the financial picture looks like on the other side. It is worth knowing, even if you are not ready to act on it today.
